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The belief that the general elections in Spain are decided by centrist voters is false. Empirical evidence shows that these voters, defined as those whose votes between the PSOE and the PP, have little relevance.
The decisive votes are those of the left volatile those ranging from the PSOE, IU and abstention.
With one exception, in the last quarter century, Spain has voted overwhelmingly left. Since 1982 there have been seven general elections. In six of them left (PSOE, IU and its predecessors) obtained from a minimum of 2.3 and a maximum of 3.5 million votes more than the right (PP, regional allies and their predecessors).
Only in the 2000 elections, which had the lowest participation rate of the current democratic era (69%) exceeded the right votes left, the difference was 1 million votes.
NC The latest survey for REASON Report reveals that if elections were held today, the PSOE would on the road 11.41 points compared to 2008, while 5.63 would grow popular.
In particular, the formation of Zapatero would of the 169 deputies of the general last between 123 and 125, which would translate into votes in a loss of more than 3.4 million
Meanwhile, Rajoy's PP are paid to a majority (fixed at 176 seats).
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With the current poll results. The PP would get between 184 and 187 deputies, that is, between 30 and 33 more than in 2008, and 625,819 more votes.
The difference therefore between the two formations is now up to 64 seats. This loss of followers of the PSOE has several reasons.
One of them, perhaps the most prominent, is that more than 2 million former Socialist voters in 2008 refrain 801,543 this time and drastically change course and choose the ballot of the PP.
Over half a million would opt for Izquierda Unida and almost 300,000 by UPyD. These figures
these that put the percentage of believers who manages to keep the Socialist Party by 65 percent.
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This produces an uneasiness near the chill, is that despite the more than five million unemployed, a country sunk, seven nefarious government, negotiation / claudication with ETA, the "tip" of the Pheasant, the social fracture, of the drift nationalist collective impoverishment, the ERE Mercasevilla, the cut of freedoms, pervasive corruption ... a 32.95% of the electorate, more than seven and a half million people would vote for the PSOE.
so blind Is sectarianism?. Is there a solution this country, entrenched in a manner so brutal in a trench ideology unable to discern and elucidate on the basis of the country's needs?. Can you get ahead when a party of the electorate vote with the viscera?.
Another important finding showing public discontent with the policy: abstention.
More than 11.2 million English will not move from their homes, that is, two million more than in 2008.
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